It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

By: Matt Sims 29th November 2018


If your Fantasy League team is top at the start of December, how likely will it be that you'll still be at the summit when it matters in May?



That's the question our Fantasy League number crunchers have been attempting to answer based on historic data.

As it turns out, if your team has already accumulated a lead of 83 points or more in the four months so far, there’s less than a 1% chance that you’ll suffer an untimely fall from grace.

However, if you're just a single point ahead at the same stage, it's obviously much less likely that you’ll hold on - just 31% of league leaders can expect to be lifting the trophy aloft come May.

The table below shows the likelihood of victory based on the advantage over the second placed team at the start of December:

Lead Win % Lead Win % Lead Win % Lead Win %
030%2567%5079%7597%
131%2667%5179%7698%
233%2768%5279%7798%
335%2868%5380%7898%
437%2969%5480%7999%
539%3069%5580%8099%
641%3170%5681%8199%
743%3270%5781%8299%
845%3371%5881%83100%
947%3471%5982%84100%
1049%3572%6082%85100%
1150%3672%6183%86100%
1252%3773%6284%87100%
1354%3874%6385%88100%
1456%3975%6486%89100%
1557%4076%6587%90100%
1658%4176%6688%91100%
1759%4277%6789%92100%
1860%4377%6890%93100%
1961%4478%6991%94100%
2062%4578%7092%95100%
2163%4678%7193%96100%
2264%4778%7294%97100%
2365%4879%7395%98100%
2466%4979%7496%99100%


However, chasing pack take note. 2018 Mushy Peas were languishing in ninth place at this time last season, 90 points behind the leaders of The League of Gentlemen. Fast forward six months and Dan Clarke was celebrating an unlikely victory by the most slender of margins - goals scored.

And spare a thought for Pete Wright, manager of Wrightability. His team were 61 points clear at this stage last season, but went on to finish third in the 11thplus league. The eventual winners of that league, BingBonger Old Boys, were down in fourth place as of 1st December - 65 points behind the leaders.

So all is not lost if you're already 50 points or more adrift of the current league leaders - there were 33 teams in a similar position last season that went on to win their respective league titles…

By the same score, league leaders can't afford to sit on their laurels. It's not over until the FA Cup final squads sing…



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